Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 4.020884 4.743100 5.543639 6.494802 7.592028 8.815875 10.282149
2025-07-20 2.998899 3.988287 5.205612 6.803916 8.836370 11.322808 14.581769
2025-07-27 2.358902 3.473871 4.971469 7.106813 10.045386 13.914917 19.356950
2025-08-03 1.848526 2.979382 4.619663 7.131023 10.827091 16.003708 23.721130
2025-08-10 1.425658 2.497190 4.164429 6.886198 11.138394 17.425398 27.285384
2025-08-17 1.099805 2.083123 3.716476 6.545095 11.210752 18.453403 30.336641
2025-08-24 0.897540 1.825816 3.461748 6.448603 11.617887 19.992512 34.283172
2025-08-31 0.745570 1.622366 3.255599 6.387231 12.051533 21.591702 38.458752
2025-09-07 0.664969 1.536345 3.240859 6.652301 13.063371 24.228458 44.575870
2025-09-14 0.572729 1.405441 3.115879 6.687593 13.656910 26.196506 49.730338
2025-09-21 0.494784 1.287327 2.993750 6.704621 14.208201 28.130203 54.987647
2025-09-28 0.428644 1.180725 2.875587 6.707823 14.724710 30.038313 60.356696
2025-10-05 0.411164 1.189500 3.013182 7.275246 16.450194 34.408142 70.738789
2025-10-12 0.371464 1.134118 2.998646 7.515098 17.542039 37.686501 79.391010
2025-10-19 0.339590 1.091946 3.007561 7.808244 18.780562 41.370494 89.155247
2025-10-26 0.296799 1.008895 2.902199 7.820752 19.411257 43.892362 96.850712
2025-11-02 0.247421 0.893299 2.692461 7.549609 19.372678 45.028467 101.849463
2025-11-09 0.202238 0.777307 2.457979 7.177021 19.048174 45.519535 105.548401
2025-11-16 0.173943 0.707577 2.335973 7.071494 19.336950 47.352643 112.215573
2025-11-23 0.151008 0.649296 2.234902 7.004541 19.708567 49.397894 119.502492
2025-11-30 0.141069 0.635024 2.261899 7.292668 20.999879 53.631979 131.917173
2025-12-07 0.125702 0.595644 2.203845 7.331005 21.654047 56.450382 141.385565
2025-12-14 0.111768 0.557548 2.142298 7.349504 22.257775 59.201794 150.915821